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There has been limited study to date into the specific patient factors that influence decisions about an individual's need for high-security psychiatric care. Admission to high-security services requires careful assessment and consideration to ensure patients receive the least restrictive care justified, and those who are most likely to benefit from it are admitted. This retrospective case-control study describes the demographic, clinical and risk characteristics of referrals made to the State Hospital in Scotland during a 12-month period, and delineates differences between referrals that were accepted and rejected for admission. It updates the methods of a previous study undertaken at the State Hospital. Six variables differentiated rejected and accepted referrals in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression found that a model with only the individual's age, whether they were prescribed antipsychotic medication at the time of referral, and whether they had a history of violent convictions, best predicted referral outcome. The findings support the conclusion that it is not only an individual's risk of violence or the severity of their mental illness in isolation, but the combination of these factors that is deemed to necessitate high-security care within a stratified forensic mental health system.