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Initial research suggested that intimate partner violence (IPV) increased over COVID-19 due to social restrictions. This IPV increase during COVID-19 has been termed the 'twin pandemics'. Closer inspection of the evidence, however, challenges this notion. In this study, Australian residents (N = 608) who were either exposed to strict, prolonged lockdown orders (Victorian residents) or not (non-Victorian residents) completed 10 waves of IPV perpetration assessment online over five months and baseline assessments of instigating factors (situational factors that increase IPV perpetration), impelling factors (personal characteristics that increase IPV perpetration) and inhibiting factors (personal and situational factors that diminish IPV perpetration). Latent profile analysis and conditional latent growth curve modelling revealed that lockdown alone did not predict IPV trajectories. However, individuals whose profiles evidenced higher instigating and impelling factors and lower inhibiting factors (i.e. perfect storm profile) demonstrated elevated physical and psychological IPV over time compared to those whose profiles evidenced lower instigating and impelling factors and higher inhibiting factors (i.e. low-risk profile). Those with a perfect storm profile also evidenced steeper acceleration in physical and psychological IPV over time. The findings call into question the 'twin pandemics' notion and suggest that IPV over COVID-19 is best predicted by a specific risk profile.