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Higher exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) has been shown to worsen the effect of COVID-19 stress on mental health problems in the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic among young adults. This study extends that research by examining depression, anxiety, hostility, and perceived stress trajectories across successive phases of the COVID-19 pandemic in a prospective, multi-wave panel study using data collected pre-COVID-19 pandemic onset, Early pandemic, Peak pandemic, and Post-Peak pandemic.

The baseline data come from the Niagara Longitudinal Heart Study (NLHS) and the three COVID-19 waves come from a sub-study of the NLHS examining the specific impact of the pandemic. Using a Bayesian multivariate mixed-model regression framework, 171 participants who responded to at least one wave of the COVID-19 sub-study were included.

Participants with higher ACE scores and high COVID-19 stress had elevated trajectories of several poor mental health measures that stayed higher than other groups across all waves of data collection.

Young adults who reported higher ACEs were more susceptible to subsequent stress exposure, highlighting a specific, high-risk group who may benefit from targeted intervention programs during times of crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic.