[Association of public health and social measures with the effectiveness of COVID-19 epidemic control].
Public health and social measures are essential tools for countries to control epidemic transmission but may also disrupt normal socioeconomic activities. This study aims to analyze differences in public health and social measures policy stringency, temporal trends, and their association with corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) control outcomes in 118 countries from January 2020 to September 2022, providing evidence to support the formulation of scientifically grounded public health and social measures policies.
Boxplots were used to describe the distribution of overall and individual public health and social measures policy stringency scores across 118 countries during the pandemic. Linear and nonlinear models were fitted to examine temporal trends in public health and social measures policy stringency. A two-way fixed-effects model was applied to analyze the association between public health and social measures policy stringency and the effective reproduction number of COVID-19.
The overall public health and social measures stringency scores across the 188 countries ranged from 7.78 to 69.75. Among these countries, temporal trend models for public health and social measures stringency were statistically significant in 108 countries (all third-order polynomial models), with coefficients of determination exceeding 0.25. Overall public health and social measures stringency increased over time in 59 countries but decreased in 49 countries. After adjusting for covariates, country-level fixed effects, and time fixed effects, the overall public health and social measures policy stringency score was negatively associated with effective reproduction number (β'=-0.076, P<0.05). Five individual public health and social measures components, school closures, workplace closures, gathering restrictions, domestic movement restrictions, and mask-wearing policies, were each negatively associated with the effective reproduction number (β'=-0.020, β'=-0.046, β'=-0.032, β'=-0.011, and β'=-0.030, respectively; all P<0.05). In contrast, international travel restrictions were positively associated with the effective reproduction number (β'=0.053, P<0.05).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the average intensity of public health and social measures implementation varied widely across 118 countries. School closures, workplace closures, gathering restrictions, domestic movement restrictions, and mask-wearing measures effectively curbed COVID-19 transmission, whereas the effectiveness of international travel restrictions diminished over time.
Boxplots were used to describe the distribution of overall and individual public health and social measures policy stringency scores across 118 countries during the pandemic. Linear and nonlinear models were fitted to examine temporal trends in public health and social measures policy stringency. A two-way fixed-effects model was applied to analyze the association between public health and social measures policy stringency and the effective reproduction number of COVID-19.
The overall public health and social measures stringency scores across the 188 countries ranged from 7.78 to 69.75. Among these countries, temporal trend models for public health and social measures stringency were statistically significant in 108 countries (all third-order polynomial models), with coefficients of determination exceeding 0.25. Overall public health and social measures stringency increased over time in 59 countries but decreased in 49 countries. After adjusting for covariates, country-level fixed effects, and time fixed effects, the overall public health and social measures policy stringency score was negatively associated with effective reproduction number (β'=-0.076, P<0.05). Five individual public health and social measures components, school closures, workplace closures, gathering restrictions, domestic movement restrictions, and mask-wearing policies, were each negatively associated with the effective reproduction number (β'=-0.020, β'=-0.046, β'=-0.032, β'=-0.011, and β'=-0.030, respectively; all P<0.05). In contrast, international travel restrictions were positively associated with the effective reproduction number (β'=0.053, P<0.05).
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the average intensity of public health and social measures implementation varied widely across 118 countries. School closures, workplace closures, gathering restrictions, domestic movement restrictions, and mask-wearing measures effectively curbed COVID-19 transmission, whereas the effectiveness of international travel restrictions diminished over time.